The Nvest Market Blog, our current thoughts on the Street
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- Contributors
- Bill Henderly, CFA
- Steve Henderly, CFA
Talk Strategy Slides Now Available
posted 03.06.2009 at 11:13 a.m. by steve
Slides from our March 5 Talk Strategy presentation are now available for download online. The file is 5.7 MB and takes a moment to download.
permalink | posted in: Market Outlook
Talk Strategy Slides Available
posted 10.15.2008 at 3:42 p.m. by steve
Slides from out October 14th Talk Strategy (town-hall) presentation are now available for download online. The file is 7.5 MB and takes a moment to download.
permalink | posted in: Market Outlook
March Monthly Commentary Now Posted
posted 03.06.2008 at 3:12 p.m. by bill
Market commentary for March is now posted in the Analysis & Commentary section.
Abstract:
Two fears currently overhang the US economy: recession and inflation. The troubling prospects for a long-running recession and spiraling inflation suggest no quick solution to our financial woes. It started months ago, even years ago, when interest rates encouraged “lenders” to provide money to anyone who could fog a mirror. Irrational exuberance has unraveled into irrational exasperation wherein the financial markets are frozen; finding money is very difficult. The backdrop of frozen credit, akin to clogged plumbing, holds a key to future market recovery. At the moment, it appears this crisis is in slow motion; the credit pipeline is stubbornly plugged and flow is not easily restored. As the clog begins to move, so too will be better days for the stock market.
Other Interesting Thoughts:
Serial Bubbles – The tech bubble peaked in 2000; money then flowed to housing (low interest rates) peaking in 2006; money now flowing into emerging markets and commodities (in particular), which seems priced at irrational exuberant heights. Warning: don’t invest by following the herd or emotions.
permalink | posted in: Market Outlook
Monthly Commentary Now Posted
posted 02.05.2008 at 4:37 p.m. by bill
Market commentary for February is now posted in the Analysis & Commentary section.
Abstract:
January 2008 will likely go down in history as one of the worst starts for the financial markets. Large write-downs by some of the most prominent banks have led those on Wall Street to grow very pessimistic about the prospects of all companies, selling them off without discretion.
It is likely that October ushered in the start of a bear market. If that is the case, we are four months into it; the average bear market lasts just eight. That could mean that better times are not that far off.
In the meantime, we are looking for opportunities to invest client cash in stock funds, which are at great values today relative to a few months back.